Wednesday, January 1, 2014

Mental Clarity

"Friends, a summary wish to everyone here for 2014: the preservation of your most important attribute and the most significant and most threatened human asset, MENTAL CLARITY".-Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

To be smarter and develop mental clarity we should be able to develop an simple thought process that is aligned to our values and ingrained character. Any changes to habitual thinking that has been developed since our childhood, upbringing and education will not be successful. we need to be careful and analyses whether we are capable of carrying such an structural change in our thought process. Any cosmetic changes can improve our self awareness but it needs to followed by an conscious change in our behavior.
Some actions that are likely to improve our mental clarity
1. Speaking slowly-Allowing the mind to keep in control.
2. Develop second level thinking.
3. Develop practical approach to problem solving.
4. Visual thoughts-Imagining all possibe action in mind to last possible option vividly.
5. "invert, always invert" Charlie Munger

Monday, December 2, 2013

TBVF: Listed player in the space - Sanjay Chhabria : ValueNotes.com

TBVF: Listed player in the space - Sanjay Chhabria : ValueNotes.com

Talwalkars Better Value Fitness(TBVF) was formed in 2003 but its co-promoters i.e. the Talwalkars has been in the fitness business for over five decades. The co-promoters had opened its first gym in 1962 in Mumbai. TBFV is the largest health club player in the country and amongst top twenty in the world. It is an early entrant into the health club market in India and has been able to build a strong brand name by providing high quality equipment and service. With 144 clubs (fitness centers) across 75 cities spread over 19 states and serving over 1.5 lakh members, Talwalkars is among the largest health club chains in Asia. TBVF has 101 clubs under its ownership model. TBVF says it holds approximately 10% market share in the organised health club market in the country. TBVF has 25,000 square feet of residential training academy for its trainers. TBVF had come came with an IPO in April 2010 at Rs128 per share. The money was raised to repay debt and to finance its expansions.

The fitness and wellness industry itself is vastly untapped and Talwalkars, with a strong presence in smaller cities too, is the only listed player in the space. In its annual report for FY 2012, Talwalkars has noted that India’s population is six times that of Brazil. However, Brazil has 16 times more health clubs than India. Further, 4,000 gyms would be required to increase the penetration to mere 1%. The growing income, increasing urbanization and higher health awareness in India will result in higher penetration of fitness market. As TBFV is the largest player in the market with a strong brand it will be a major beneficiary of this growing market.

Talwalkars has enhanced its business scope from being a gym player to a fitness player. NuForm Gym Studios is one such initiative. The focus is on weight loss and slimming. Apart from standard facilities in its health club, the firm has introduced many value-added offerings such as spa at 13 locations, aerobics and personal training. It has launched Zumba fitness program 11 gyms and plans to introduce it across all gyms in a phased manner. This increases the variety of products for the customers and increases their engagement with TBVF. Besides, Talwarkars would be tapping growth opportunities in tier 2, 3 and 4 cities with its affordable format hi-fi gym membership.

Besides the flagship Talwalkars chain, TBVF also has a chain called HiFi. Smaller in size and priced about 40% lower than the Talwalkars, the HiFi model is being used to push into tier-II and -III towns. The margins are lower in this model, but it helps faster expansion, especially in small cities where the fitness wave is beginning to spread. Rising aspirational spending on fitness in smaller cities may mean better business for Talwalkars, which has a good presence in Tier-II cities. Talwalkars also has the first mover advantage in these cities. As of March 2013, almost 65% of its health centres were in Tier-II and III cities.

TBVF’s standalone revenues have increased from Rs71 cr. in FY10 to Rs119.3 cr. in FY12. Its net profit has tripled during this period from Rs7.8 cr. to Rs22 cr.. TBVF's EBITDA margin has increased from 37.8% to 43% now. On a equity of 26.18 cr.(Promoters’ stake–54.78%,DII/FII stake-25.12%), the EPS for FY12 stood at Rs9.15 and the dividend declared was 12.5%. For the year ended March 2013, TBVF has posted 29% rise in consolidated net sales to Rs168 cr. whereas net profit grew 36% to Rs30 cr.. The EPS for FY13 stands at Rs11.45 and a dividend of 15% has been declared. The book value per share stands at Rs79.6. In FY13, especially in Q4, TBVF has widened its presence in different segments of fitness like weight loss (Reduce), alternate form of fitness (massage & Zumba®). These initiatives are significantly higher ROCE business due to its low dependence on capex. Addition of members and renewal of membership have been steady.

TBFV is a play on the growing healthcare market in India. It has a strong brand name and is now capitalizing, with rapid expansion. TBVF has a robust business model which can generate high returns and is scalable. It will be a significant beneficiary of the growing health awareness in the country. Also, the first mover advantage it has will enable it to capitalize on the growing healthcare market. There are not any listed comparable players and thus its closest comparable peers are the consumption companies (Jubilant Foodworks, Page Industries, Titan Industries etc) which trade at an average P/E of 25x FY13. As TBFV will have lower return ratios in the near term and also its execution capabilities will be under scanner, it will trade at a discount to the comparable peer set.  At Rs128, the TBVF stock is trading at 11x its FY13 earnings (Rs11.45) and 9x its expected FY14 earnings (Rs13.5 – Rs14.5). 

TBVF has transformed from a gym player to a holistic fitness player with a pan – India presence, catering to each segment of the fitness industry like weight loss, personal training, Zumba® program, sports. This has not only helped TBVF to leverage on the current asset and member base but has also widened the member profile and profitability. The new initiatives launched by the company are high EBITDA and ROCE accretive. The impact of these initiatives will be more visible in the coming quarters. Investors can start accumulating the TBFV stock at current levels and add more on declines for decent returns of 50%-60% over the next 9-12 months.

Friday, November 15, 2013

Daily posters

Acrysil- BSE-524091

Acrysil (India)
BSE: 524091|ISIN: INE482D01016|SECTOR: Plastics 
Nov 14, 17:00
120.00
 Acrysil- Manufacturer of the upper end quartz mineral kitchen sink "Carysil". the sink  are manufactured using cast by means of computerized polymerization casting process which give flexibility in design and finish.

1. Majority of their production is exported to German based Schock and Co. who also hold almost 10% public holdings..
2. Quartz Mineral is is one of the most abundantly available minerals on the earth.
3. Company has consistent ROCE and ROE. Also the company has a generous dividend policy
4. Retails holding of stock (<1lakh) is high 24%.
5. Company is starting to concentrate in the domestic market and expand its presence in different kitchen appliance.

Will Acrysil be a multi bagger like TTK prestige and hawkins. well my guestimate is probably not. Acrysil product are niche high end markets. untill the company expands into more mass marketable products its is highly unlikely to compete with the heavy weights.
much better the company concentrate its energy into its core products and expand its presence and margins.
As of now its added to my watch list and see how it develops.

Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Whats that noise.

Switch on the TV and your are bombarded with continuous stream of information and analysis. its good to hear what going on in the outside world only if you have the sense to weed out the rubbish that gets thrown at you.
cutting out the noise and listening to what is relevant is natural ability. understadin this doesnt mean we cant develop this skill.
yess its a skill and therefore can be learnt and developed.
keep a clear objective of why you are doing this excessive. most developed investors start with the tagline, "why we shouldn't buy this stock?"
First list out all the standard measure that are easily identified (sales, net profit, EBITA, cash, debt). compare with other industry peers or other value parameters (PE ratio, profit growth, debt ration, net sales, etc). then look for anomalies


Monday, November 11, 2013

A place to die

Charlie munger"All I want to know is where I will die, so I don't go there"
Profound words from Charlie. As a investor our greatest risk is not temporary loss of return but permanent loss of capital. We have to continuously educate ourself about the risk that exist. Mr. Market, macro econimcs, government policy, corporate governance, moat, etc are all highly visible roadblocks which a retail investor has to look into.
But more dangerous and ever present risk is the investor himself. Behaviorial investing. An investor has to learn more about himself so that he can tailor his portfolio needs according to his personality. The investor need to understand his own bias not to change them but to limit the risk that arise.
Ben Graham "The investor’s chief problem – and even his worst enemy – is likely to be himself.” "

Sunday, November 10, 2013

If you want to fly.....

The Falcon--------Story with a Good Moral !!

  Once there was a king who received a gift of two magnificent falcons from Arabia. They were peregrine falcons, the most beautiful birds he had ever seen. He gave the precious birds to his head falconer to be trained.

Months passed and one day the head falconer informed the king that though one of the falcons was flying majestically, soaring high in the sky, the other bird had not moved from its branch since the day it had arrived.

The king summoned healers and sorcerers from all the land to tend to the falcon, but no one could make the bird fly. He presented the task to the member of his court, but the next day, the king saw through the palace window that the bird had still not moved from its perch. Having tried everything else, the king thought to himself, "May be I need someone more familiar with the countryside to understand the nature of this problem." So he cried out to his court, "Go and get a farmer."

In the morning, the king was thrilled to see the falcon soaring high above the palace gardens. He said to his court, "Bring me the doer of this miracle."

The court quickly located the farmer, who came and stood before the king. The king asked him, "How did you make the falcon fly?"

With head bowed, the farmer said to the king, " It was very easy, your highness. I simply cut the branch where the bird was sitting."

Moral :-
We are all made to fly - to realize our incredible potential as human beings. But instead of doing that, we sit on our branches, clinging to the things that are familiar to us. The possibilities are endless, but for most of us, they remain undiscovered. We conform to the familiar, the comfortable, the mundane. So for the most part, our lives are mediocre instead of exciting, thrilling and fulfilling. So let us learn to destroy the branch of fear we cling to and free ourselves to the glory of flight.

PS: i decided to cut my branch